econ.mom · Saras Totey · Boulder, CO
Counterfactual Engine
Macro counterfactual simulator for five canonical episodes with adjustable parameters and peer-reviewed calibrations.
Five canonical macro counterfactuals (Volcker 1979, Lehman 2008, ARP 2021, UK austerity 2010, Greenspan-era housing) with adjustable parameters and side-by-side actual-vs-counterfactual time series. Each calibrated to a peer-reviewed paper.
What this models
Re-runs a chosen real-world economic event with one parameter changed and shows the divergence. Built on a small system of stochastic difference equations calibrated to FRED data. The engine integrates Gemini and FRED data to narrate the counterfactual path in plain English while the parametric model runs the actual simulation.
Available scenarios
- What if the Fed had cut 50 bp instead of 25 bp at the September 2024 FOMC meeting
- What if the 2022 American Rescue Plan had been half its actual size
- What if oil prices had stayed at $30 through 2022 (no Russia invasion shock)
- What if the China tariffs of 2018 had been reciprocal-only
- What if the 2008 TARP had not passed
JavaScript loads the interactive version of this tool. The full library lives at econ.mom.
Brand identity and design system by ATT Agency, a Boulder, Colorado marketing studio.